O impacto da intervenção cambial esterilizada na taxa de juros

Abstract

The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has suffered a substantial increase in the last years of the twentieth century. Given the importance of this accumulation in relation to economic policy (from which part is derived from exchange sterilization) and the diverging arguments about the causal relation between sterilization and the interest rates, this work has aimed to verify the formation of interest rates in the context of government interventions towards exchange in the period between 2002 and 2018. However, the ARDL econometric approached is utilized, which presents advantages in relation to other cointegration techniques. The theoretical framework was based on the Theory of Uncovered Real Interest Rate Parity. According to the results, the first variable related to the intervention by exchange sterilization, the exchange reserve, expressed a negative relation to the interest rates, while the second variable, liquid debt, received both a negative and a positive relation. However, with regard to the study of Garcia (2011), there was no evidence that the sterilized exchange rate intervention would have an expansionary effect, that is, that the monetary base would be higher than its initial level.