Análise dos ciclos de negócios nos setores da indústria de transformação intensivos em tecnologia no Brasil

Abstract

In this paper, the business cycles in the industrial productive sectors of high and medium technological intensity of Brazil between 1991 and 2014 are defined and analyzed. Therefore, it is proposed to date the cycles through the algorithm developed by Bry and Boschan (1973), the analysis of the degree of co- movement between series and the creation of a coincident indicator composed of the seven sectors of the productive activity extracted, in addition, the trend-cycle decomposition method of unobservable components was used in order to base the possibility of forecasting the oscillations of the mean and high tech productive sectors. The production series considered were the construction and assembly of airplanes, electrical and communication equipment, pharmaceuticals, chemical products, plastic products, petroleum and motor vehicles, all on a monthly basis. The results show more pronounced fluctuations for the individual sectors than those extracted from the aggregate indicator, but of shorter duration. From the analysis of the coincident indicator, it is also affirmed that the technological-intensive productive sector tends to be less volatile in its fluctuations and quite sensitive to shocks in the economy, with a considerable interval of dissipation of its effects.