Desenvolvimento de modelo de fluxo de potência polar intervalar baseado na expansão da série de Taylor

Abstract

Power flow analysis, over the years, has been a tool widely used by engineers in electric power systems planning and operation. Based on power flow solution, it is possible to determine voltage magnitudes and angles at each bus, active and reactive flows for all the branches in steady state, once it is provided an operating point determined by scheduled load and generation data. However, due to the ever increasing of power energy consumption and the use of intermittent sources, uncertain input data are observed in practical situations. Thus, novel methodologies must be proposed for power flow algorithms in order to consider uncertainties over load and generation data. This work presents an interval power flow based on polar coordinates, using Taylor series expansion until the second order of the series. Within this context, the proposed method uses not only the Jacobian but also the Hessian matrix referring to the power flow equations. Uncertainties are considered for active and reactive load power at each bus of systems. This technique is incorporated into the power flow based on polar coordinates. Simulations are carried out using brazilian test systems 9, 33 and 107-bus . The results are compared with interval mathematics, with the interval rectangular power flow model based on the full Taylor series expansion and also with Monte Carlo Simulation.