Indicador de desenvolvimento institucional municipal – uma análise multivariada e espacial

Abstract

Given the observation of high regional economic disparities in the Brazilian territory and theories that defend the role of institutions in economic development, this work aims to measure the profile and extent of the institutional difference between the Brazilians municipalities. For this, it is proposed the elaboration of an indicator of counties institutional development (IDIM), through multivariate analysis techniques. In addition, given the nature of the indicator, an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is proposed. As a final method, there is an application of the two-stage least squares model (2SLS) to capture the relationship between the institutional indicator and the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of municipalities. The data used for the construction of the indicator are from the Pesquisa de Informações Básicas Municipais (MUNIC / IBGE), for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015; the data used in the econometric model are the Central Bank, IBGE, INEP, IPEA and National Treasury. The results show that there is some level of spatial autocorrelation for the IDIM indicator and a positive relation between this and the level of counties per capita income. Thus, given the control of endogeneity, suggests that an increase in the institutional indicator leads to an increase in the per capita GDP of the municipalities. The creation of an institutional indicator is justified by the lack of a current multivariate instrument that provides counties authorities and public policymakers with an insight into the institutional heterogeneity among the regions, under the prism of the State participation.