Análise financeira empresarial contemporânea: um estudo acerca da aplicabilidade dos modelos de previsão de dificuldades financeiras em companhias brasileiras de capital aberto

Abstract

This national environment, marked by crises in several areas, has directly affected the financial health of the companies. The current circumstances make it conducive and relevant business analysis with focus on economic imbalances and financial forecast. With the purpose to contribute for this purpose, were developed in Brazil various forecast models that can be useful at the present time regarding the perception of complications under the economic and financial aspect. To this end, this study objected to test the ability of five models to identify the context of 28 Brazilian open capital companies. Such companies were segregated between those that requested the judicial recovery in the last 5 years and that at the moment the group of the best companies in the country, as a means of comparison and verification of the results obtained. Analyzing the models of Elizabetsky (1976), Kanitz (1978), Matias (1978), Altman, Baidya e Dias (1979) e Silva (1997), it was noted that the model of Matias (1978) presented the highest percentage of correct predictions for the two samples. Therefore, contacted the efficiency of this model, its singularities and your applicability as a tool of analysis in the prediction of financial difficulties in the field.