Volatilidade dos resultados de proficiência e seu impacto sobre as metas do Ideb nas escolas públicas de Minas Gerais

Abstract

This paper has two main purposes. The first one is to obtain a volatility measure of Portuguese and Mathematics mean scores in Minas Gerais State public schools. The second one is to estimate the probable impact of these fluctuations on results of respective Ideb goals. The analysis is based on data obtained from Prova Brasil and Simave (Sistema Mineiro de Avaliação da Educação Básica) tests. The used statistical technique is a longitudinal hierarchical model with the schools as the level of interest. One of the main conclusions obtained is the fact that fluctuation in school mean scores is considerable, even when one takes into account its growth rates. Another relevant conclusion is the fact that this fluctuation can have a considerable impact on the success or failure of a given school in reaching its respective Ideb goals.