Distribuição espacial dos serviços logísticos no Brasil: uma contribuição empírica à nova geografia econômica

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to investigate the present and long-term spatial distribution of the logistic sector in Brazil. In order to do so, this study seeks to answer the following questions: i) how is the logistics sector organized in Brazil? Or is there evidence of logistic clusters? ii) what is the long-term perspective of this organization? To answer these questions, this work adopts the approaches developed in Fujita et al. (1999), Krugman (1991, 1998) and Krugman and Venables (1993, 1995), who make considerations about the location and formation of agglomerations of economic activities, to the point of inaugurating a line of research called New Economic Geography (NGE). The Logistic Potential Model (MPLog27), inspired by Krugman's Center-Periphery Model (1991), will serve as an analytical tool to verify the long-term spatialization of the logistics sector. The results point to a change in the locational pattern of the logistic-industrial sector in Brazil over the period analyzed (2015-2065). The states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul (in the South), Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás (in the Midwest), Pará and Tocantins (in the North), Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe (in the Northeast) are highlighted in relation to the others. This may be indicating a process of spatial convergence of the provision of logistics services to the industry. In contrast, there appears to be no spatial convergence of access to logistical services for agriculture. In this case, the forces act in the sense of conservation of existing clusters in the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo.