Condições iniciais de saúde e renda futura: uma análise dos impactos da seca no Brasil

Abstract

This work aimed to investigate the effects of exposure to nutritional adversities during early childhood on future work returns. Based on the information contained in the 2010 Demographic Census and information from the Secretariat of Civil Defense of the Ministry of National Integration, individuals exposed to the drought that lasted from 1979 to 1984 during early childhood were selected to verify whether their work income was affected, when in adulthood. The adoption of exposure to drought was due to the effects generated by it on nutrition and the exogeneity of climatic phenomena. A Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach was used to estimate the mean effect of drought among individuals exposed to it. Two samples were selected, the first containing individuals born in the same locality, but at different periods, and another with individuals born in different localities, but in the same period. For the first sample, the results indicated that individuals exposed to drought presented lower average incomes in the order of 40%, in relation to individual income, and around 60%, for household income, in relation to the control group. For the second sample, however, the results indicated higher mean incomes for treated, around 2%, for individual income, and 4% for household income.