Avaliação do uso de classificadores para verificação de atendimento a critérios de seleção em programas sociais

Abstract

Classifiers are group separators that, by means of certain characteristics, organize the data by grouping elements that present similar traits, which allows pattern recognition and the identification of elements that do not fit. Classification procedures can be used in everyday processes such as clinical or imaging exams, automatic grain separators in agribusiness, probability identifiers, character recognition, biometric identification by thumbprints, iris, face, etc. This study uses a database of the Ministry of Social Development and Fight against Hunger (MDS), containing information on beneficiaries of the Bolsa Fam´ılia Program (PBF). The data describe the home environment, the level of education of the residents of the household, their use of public health services, and some financial information (income and expenses of families). The focus of this study is not to evaluate the PBF, but to analyze the performance of the classifiers when applied to bases of social character, since these have certain peculiarities. We have tested three classification algorithms - logistic regression, binary decision trees and artificial neural networks. The performance of these algorithms was measured by metrics computed from the so-called confusion matrix. As the probabilities of right and wrong classifications of a class are not complementary, it is of the utmost importance that both are correctly identified. A good evaluation could not be archive for both classes in a same scenario was not raised - the identification of the minority group showed low efficiency even with resampling followed by reapplication of the three classificatory processes chosen, which points to the need for new experiments.