Os efeitos da interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária sobre variáveis macroeconomicas da economia brasileira

Abstract

The main aim of this dissertation is to study the effects of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies on the macroeconomic variables of the Brazilian economy. Therefore we analyzed the significance of different DSGE models through the DSGE-VAR method, which involves the estimation of lambda model fitting parameter, as Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004, 2006, 2009). The results show that Bayesian DSGE models with sticky prices, external sector and the interaction between policies, is one that has the best grip to the actual data. Thus, were estimated the impulse response functions, which confirm the importance of the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policies. From there, we evaluated the dominance regime practiced in Brazil, under the method proposed by Leeper (1991). The parameter values combination results in monetary dominance proposition in the period from the first quarter of 2002 and the third quarter of 2015. Besides, we estudied the dominance regime related to period prior and posterior to the subprime crisis. The results show that the dominance regime has not change. However, fiscal policy has became more active. It was found that in the post crisis period, both the shock fiscal policy as the monetary policy were higher, i.e., intensified the use of fiscal instruments.