Letramento em futuros: uma estratégia para desenvolvimento de cidades

Abstract

Research Objective: Urbanization is an expanding global phenomenon that creates enormous challenges for public administration. Cities are facing increasingly rapid transformations, and planning based solely on past knowledge is insufficient. In this context, this research aimed to understand how futures literacy can contribute to improving urban planning practices. Theoretical Framework: This study falls within the "Public Policy" research line, linking discussions on urban planning and Futures Studies. Urban planning aims to organize the city's full development, yet its processes based on past and current evidence are no longer sufficient to keep pace with a constantly changing environment. Futures Studies can provide methodologies and perspectives that allow planners to anticipate alternative futures and influence decision-making today. Methodology: This is an exploratory study using a qualitative approach and thematic analysis to process information. A theoretical-normative framework was developed through bibliographic and documentary research, alongside evidence collection via interviews with municipal civil servants, urban planning experts, and Futures Studies specialists. Results: During the plan-making process, the diagnostic phase is the most extensive and detailed, yet it should not be the most important. Prognosis is the stage where planners have the least experience and technical mastery; therefore, fostering futures literacy among planners empowers them to better fulfill their roles. Originality/Relevance: The study draws upon the methodology for creating master plans and the generic foresight process developed by Voros (2003) to propose a futures-oriented urban planning process. The research offers an organizational contribution by improving the municipal planning process; a social contribution by developing planners' knowledge to strengthen municipal urban policy for the benefit of citizens; and an interdisciplinary scientific contribution by bridging two fields of knowledge. Practical contributions: It proposes the enhancement of the urban planning process based on Futures Studies. The research resulted in the development of a study guide for "futures literacy" aimed at municipal civil servants, which presents a theoretical model for futures-oriented urban planning.