Três ensaios sobre o programa bolsa família: impacto nas eleições, bem-estar e pobreza

Abstract

This study consists of three essays designed to assess the effects of the Bolsa Família. The first essay deals with the impact of Bolsa Família on the presidential elections in 2006 and 2010. The results show that the Bolsa Família Program had positive and significant effect in the variation of the votes of PT in the elections for president in the years considered, either when considering the change in the value of benefits per capita or when considering the variation of the number of benefits per capita. The second essay deals with the effect of Bolsa Família on the welfare of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2009, using the measure of welfare of Sen (1976), going beyond the analyzes in the literature regarding the impact on income or on inequality in isolation. The results indicate that the Bolsa Família Program had a positive effect on the welfare of the municipalities in the period considered, although the coefficient found is not of great magnitude. The third and final essay covered the key aspect of the Bolsa Família: poverty. The work uses the poverty measure proposed by Sen (1974). The results indicate that the Bolsa Família Program had no significant influence on poverty reduction in Brazilian municipalities in the period considered. All essays control for the unobserved characteristics, the spatial dependence and heteroscedasticity.