Modelo binomial de escolha discreta – um exercício de aplicação na divisão modal de transporte

Abstract

This study aims to develop a methodological guide, together with a declared preference survey, for the study of modal choice for positioning. To theoretically support this analysis, a bibliographical review was carried out on the topic in question. The methodology adopted consists of applying the Stated Preference Survey, using as the main variable the travel time of 10 different bus lines that circulate in the city of Juiz de Fora — MG. These lines will be considered possible for public transport. At the same time, a cost and time survey will be carried out for the same trip, using app-based transport, from the starting point to the end point of the route. To facilitate data collection, the Google Forms form was used, making it available to as many students as possible who responded. Therefore, try to obtain a sample of students’ preferences in relation to the available modes of transport. The analysis of the results obtained will allow modeling through Discrete Choice Modeling, using the Binomial Logit Model. Therefore, we always calculate the probability of choosing between the two modes of transport in question, that is, buses and vehicles per application. Furthermore, through the model, it will be possible to identify which modifications, both in terms of time and cost, will have a more significant impact on participants' modal choice. Finally, based on the data obtained, we verified its applicability as a practical exercise for the Transport Planning and Economics discipline.