Formação de expectativas de inflação no Brasil: um teste para a hipótese de racionalidade

Abstract

Given the recognized importance of agents’ expectations for the economy, governments seek ways to anchor them. Among the most crucial are inflation expectations, influencing how agents behave based on their anticipation of future inflation. In Brazil, the anchoring of inflation expectations is done through the inflation targeting regime. This study aimed to test the bias and rationality of a sample of inflation expectations collected and disclosed by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) through the Market Expectations System. Test results, conducted with two sample groups, indicate a bias in inflation expectations formation, significant for the first group but not significant for part of the second group. The tests also reject the weak hypothesis of rationality for data that is more out of date, while the group of more updated data is consistent with the weak rationality hypothesis.