Indústria brasileira entre 2003 e 2012: uma análise sobre desindustrialização e taxa de câmbio

Abstract

Deindustrialization is a phenomenon whose origin is the subject of extensive academic literature. For most countries, its occurrence is undesirable because it represents a loss of economic dynamism in a sector that is crucial for innovation and income generation: manufacturing industry. This paper carries out a literature review in order to verify the effects of exchange rate behavior on Brazilian industry between 2003 and 2012, given the hypothesis of the existence of Dutch disease - exchange rate overvaluation due to abundant natural or primary resources - in addition to presenting the exchange rate policies of the first Dilma government along with their effects on the industrial sector. To provide statistical support for the research, relevant indicators are used that reflect the performance of the manufacturing industry, such as its share of GDP, of exports and import penetration coefficients in the domestic market. The conclusion is that there is clear evidence of relative deindustrialization in the period and that Brazil also suffered from Dutch disease.