Desancoragem das expectativas, credibilidade e os efeitos das políticas monetárias: estimativas para o Brasil a curto e médio prazo

Abstract

The quest for building credibility has been one of the main goals of monetary authorities today. Maintaining the anchoring of agents' expectations has become a fundamental factor for the effectiveness of monetary policies and economic stability. Currently, the Central Bank of Brazil is still in the process of building its credibility, a task that has faced challenges due to the constant economic and political crises experienced by the country. In this regard, this work was developed with the aim of identifying the effects of economic and monetary shocks on monetary policy action and economic outcomes, taking into account the short and medium term, and finally, making a comparison between the results. The methodology used was that of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, following the approach of Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The data used were for Brazil and were obtained from the Focus Report, Ipeadata, and through our own elaboration. The research period covered the years 2004 to 2023. The results demonstrated that credibility breakdowns can have effects on agents' expectations in the short and medium term. However, in the medium term, expectations are more strongly linked to the central bank's goals. Additionally, deviations in credibility lead to short-term reductions in the output gap and inflation acceleration. In the medium term, the effects of disanchoring on production are more moderate and do not appear to be associated with worsening inflation.