Avaliação do efeito dos atributos do ambiente construído na disseminação da Covid-19 na área urbana de Juiz de Fora – Minas Gerais, no ano de 2020

Abstract

In December 2019, chinese authorities advised the World Health Organization (WHO) about patients with pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei Province. It was a new coronavirus that, due to its high transmission capacity and the large flow of international travel, had spread worldwide. Despite the initial steps to understand the virus transmission dynamics in cities are in progress and they point to a possible help with attributes of the built environment, these discussions are more frequent in developed countries. In Brazil, although research includes analyzes of the vulnerability of cities due to socioeconomic inequalities in large urban centers, there is a lack of studies to understand the relationship between the characteristics of urban space and the distribution and infection of Covid-19 in non-metropolitan cities. To fill this gap, this study explores the existence of correlations between attributes of the built environment and the spread of Covid-19 in urban area of Juiz de Fora during three phases throughout 2020. Data on infected people and the attributes of the built environment were provided by the Department of Epidemiological and Environmental Surveillance and by the Urban Planning Department of the Municipality of Juiz de Fora, respectively. Clusters of expanding cases across the city were identified by testing the univariate Moran Index using GeoDa occupancy data analysis software. Subsequently, the number of cases and the constructed environment attributes were correlated using a statistical spatial regression model. The results suggest a heterogeneous pattern in the distribution of infection and the formation of spatial clusters in phases 1, 2 and 3. In addition, demographic determinants, public transport infrastructure and urban mobility were significant in explaining the incidence of Covid-19 in census tracts. The assessment of the dynamics of Covid-19 and its dynamics with attributes of the urban space is important to promote the articulation of public policies related to urban planning in relation to health problems. In this case, this research intends to contribute to the understanding of the behavior of the Covid-19 infection in relation to the urban mesh of the city and the results will be able to subsidize the elaboration of social, environmental, health, respiratory policies by the public power and to create a bank of data for the city.