Crise político-econômica brasileira à luz de um modelo de controle sintético

Abstract

The present paper aims to analyze the impacts of changes in macroeconomic policy and levels of corruption perception on Brazil's economic growth during the political and economic crisis between 2013 and 2017. We utilized data from the World Bank and Transparency International, considering countries with similar political, geographical, or cultural characteristics. Through two synthetic control models, we were able to simulate the behavior of the Brazilian economy without the political and economic shocks of this crisis. The first model emphasizes the significance of the transition from the Macroeconomic Tripod to the New Economic Matrix, revealing the significant consequences of poorly planned and executed economic policies. On the other hand, the second model indicates that corruption scandals, although an important political factor in Brazil's recent history, did not have significant impacts during the 2014 crisis. Therefore, it is concluded that in addition to the need for stronger institutions and efficient governance to combat corruption, conducting in-depth studies on macroeconomic policy models before their definitive implementation is essential to ensure stability and economic development of the country.