Credibilidade fiscal: impactos sobre a gestão da dívida pública

Abstract

The AFP – Annual Financing Plan is a document prepared by the National Treasury that sets out the objectives and guidelines for managing the federal public debt in Brazil. In recent years, the objective has been to reduce the share of bonds indexed to floating rates and increase the share of bonds indexed to price indices, in addition to complying with the average maturity period. The Treasury also highlights the fiscal commitment as a key factor for achieving these goals. This work seeks to analyze the relationship between fiscal probability and public debt through a VAR model using variables that represent the proportion of debt associated with each index, the debt/GDP ratio and the average debt maturity period. As a main result, it was identified that fiscal confidence has a more significant effect on the debt/GDP ratio than on the settlement of the public debt.