Estimativa de crescimento populacional no bairro São Pedro em Juiz de Fora – MG

Abstract

The main objective of the present work was to develop an analysis of the population and spatial impact of the implementation of large vertical residential condominiums has generated in the São Pedro neighborhood in Juiz de Fora – MG. For this, the research used data from the 2000 Demographic Census and the 2010 Demographic Census to develop a population estimation model for the São Pedro neighborhood and the condominiums analyzed for the year 2020. The model sought, first, to estimate the population of the São Pedro neighborhood for the year 2020. In this way, two estimated values were obtained and then the average between them was extracted. The first value obtained was based on the percentage of population growth observed in the neighborhood between 2000 and 2010, corresponding to 37%. The second value was based on the population percentage of the neighborhood in relation to the municipality of Juiz de Fora - MG, according to data from the 2000 and 2010 Demographic Censuses, in addition to the population estimate for the population of Juiz de Fora - MG for the year 2020, according to IBGE. Next, we sought to estimate the population of the analyzed condominiums. For this, the research used data from the 2010 Demographic Census related to the census sector 313670205070026, which corresponds to the Colinas de São Pedro residential condominium, an enterprise with a similar pattern to the surveyed condominiums. Data related to (1) resident persons, (2) permanent private households, (3) occupied permanent private households and (4) average number of residents per occupied household were used. For spatial analysis of the neighborhood the research used the software Google Earth Pro for drawing up maps and carrying out measurements of the neighborhood areas and the surveyed condominiums. For spatial qualitative analysis, a photographic survey of the enterprises and their surroundings was carried out. Within its estimation perspective the study concluded that, by the year 2020, the population residing in the surveyed condominiums corresponded to 27,10% (5.306 inhabitants) of the population of the neighborhood and the area occupied by this portion was equivalent to 2,53% (99.734 m²) of the area district. In this sense, the research reinforces the impact that such projects have caused to the local urban dynamics, so that it is essential for the public authorities to be aware of the transformations in the region.