Determinantes do desempenho das exportações brasileiras da indústria siderúrgica entre 2003 e 2020

Abstract

The steel industry is a sector that is extremely relevant to the economy and contributes materials to several other sectors. This scope has China in a prominent position in the sense of being the largest producer of goods resulting from this sector, such as cast iron, iron and steel, products that are analyzed in this work. Brazil is the ninth largest producer of this industry in the world, which in the country is marked by high domestic consumption and also a high level of attention to the external sector. In this way, the research sought to identify the main sources in the variation of Brazilian steel exports from 2003 to 2020 and what they mean for the market. Therefore, the Constant Market Share model was used to identify the effects that impacted the variation of exports in this period. From the analysis of the results, it was possible to observe that between 2003 and 2014, Brazilian competitiveness was not very relevant for the growth of exports, which in this period underwent a great growth as a result of the Chinese growth in the sector; that is, the increase in global iron and steel trade led to an increase in Brazilian exports. On the other hand, from 2015 to 2020, a period of retraction in the average of national exports of cast iron, iron and steel was identified. On the other hand, the competitiveness effect of Brazilian exports proved to be relevant to reduce the impact of this retraction. Therefore, what significantly affected the exports of the Brazilian steel sector in the time period analyzed form external factors, while internal factors that are exclusively dependent on actions taken by the country were less relevant.