Uma investigação empírica acerca da produtividade no Brasil: 1996 a 2019

Abstract

This research aimed to investigate the fluctuations of Brazilian productivity in recent decades and to present some factors that may contribute to the explanation and understanding of this phenomenon. To this end, econometric models were estimated from panel data with fixed effects in which a country's productivity over time is explained by its own “i”-periods lag and by the lags of explanatory variables. In addition, data on the dynamics of Brazilian productivity and other productivity-related indicators were analyzed, comparing Brazil's performance with that of five groupings of countries over time, namely: Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia Pacific, BRICS and OECD. Analyzing Brazil's 2019 total factor productivity data and comparing it with its history, it is observed that it is at a similar level to the 1950s in terms of US productivity. Between 1996 and 2019, its negative performance stands out even in the international context. According to the estimated econometric models and the indicators analyzed, there are indications that Brazilian productivity is affected by multiple factors, such as excessive public spending, the level of trade liberalization, political and economic uncertainty (a reflection of the institutional environment), among other issues explored in the text. For Brazil to reach a path of sustained economic growth in the long term, it is essential to review the policies that govern the factors that affect its productivity.