A relação entre antifragilidade e incerteza à luz das contribuições de Taleb

Abstract

This study aims to review the theme of the two main works of author Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable (2008) and Antifragile: Things that benefit from chaos (2014), with emphasis for the second, believing it to be a work that more fully contemplates their understanding of uncertainty, risk management and how we can take advantage of uncertain situations. A secondary objective is to understand his contribution and current relevance to the study related to uncertainty and randomness of events, in the sense that they do not follow a deterministic pattern and how concepts apparently related to the fields of statistics can be applied to everyday life, with several examples, allegories and metaphors that the author proposes throughout the works bringing his thoughts to the reality of readers in a more clear and objective way, the practical content of his narrative may be due to his practical experience in the financial market in the past and his current role in scientific production, Taleb certainly forms the "bridge" between empirical and theoretical knowledge. The uncertainty in Taleb's idea takes on a peculiar nuance with the allegory of the Black Swan, which are ev events that, because they are highly improbable and rare, seem to have no effect on our reality, but with the development of the theme we come to understand its relevance with both positive and negative consequences for reality and more than trying to predict it (which would be impossible), we are compelled to adopt a posture that makes us not only resilient, but better, more prepared and with fewer weaknesses, which the author will call “antifragile”. Therefore, those who adopt an antifragile posture should not be concerned about the lack of inherent information about the uncertain, but should be more concerned about learning that what is not within our reach at present, can bring us later in the future.