Renda, consumo, bem-estar e sistema produtivo: os impactos econômicos da mudança do IRPF e compensação de ICMS no Brasil

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the impacts of a change in the tax structure of the personal income tax (PIT) and tax on consumption in Brazil. Policies that interfere in the tax structure directly affect the household disposable income and consequently the composition of consumption and the productive structure. To measure these effects, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was required. This model brings innovation by including the database from the personal income tax declaration made available by Federal Revenue of Brazil. The methodology was applied to two different simulations: the first one corresponds to changes in the structure of nominal PIT rates, whereas the second one refers to exemption from tax on consumption. The detailed PIT database allows to fill a gap in the applied research to the Brazilian economy that explores the connection among tax, income, consumption and productive structure. The main results suggest that when both policies are combined, they are able to produce positive effects on GDP and the well-being of families, resulting in real income gains for all families in the model. If the policy had been implemented, GDP would have an increase of 2% until the year of 2018 and 3,06% until 2030. While the investment would grow 7,03% and 5,36% for the same years. Sectorial projections of such policies indicate that the sectors most benefited by the increase in household demand would be consumer goods and consumer durables, they would have an increase of 5,61% and 4,23% until 2030, respectively. By the end of the policy, in 2030, the family well-being would rise for all families and, in the same direction, disposable household income would present positive projection of 11,49% until the year of 2018 and 8,30% until 2030. In this context, redistributive policies have the potential to modify the productive structure by rising real household income and fostering the domestic market and economic activity