Modelagem e simulação da dinâmica populacional do mosquito Aedes aegypti

Abstract

This work aims to report a descriptive research on the Aedes aegypti mosquito behavior through computational simulations. The motivation for this work comes from the crescent impact of the species in society. We hope that a realistic simulation can provide information that helps decision taking in the control of dengue, zika and chikungunya. Initially, a mathematical model is developed based on the literature and known biological factors. Parameters like maturation rate and mortality are proposed as time and spatial variables based on biological knowledge about the Ae. aegypti mosquito found in the literature. An additional analysis will be made in some parameters to fit the model using experimental data. After that, we propose to work in the model numerically. The finite volume method will be used to obtain theorical results in respect to the proliferation and behaviour of mosquitoes in an urban area modeled on the city of Juiz de Fora. The final results show how the climate factors dependence is essential to model’s realism, and guide us to new paths like the study of insecticide application in urban area. While the application can already be seen with the current implementation, the measurement of the parameters of the used substances in this technique is proposed as a future work.