Ação antropogênica sobre o relevo e sua influência na modelagem de predição de escorregamentos e de risco na bacia hidrográfica do Córrego Tapera, Juiz de Fora -MG

Abstract

The organization of the geographic space of the small territory where the Tapera Stream Hydrographic Basin (BHCT) is located has been experiencing in the last decades an increasing and rapid urbanization process on sectors of slopes not favorable to human occupation, which has generated significant and (at different scales and spatial extensions) in their dynamics, which contribute directly to the intensification of morphodynamic processes, especially with regard to the occurrence of landslides. Hence, based on the aforementioned problem, the present research sought to evaluate by identifying the areas that are likely to occur in landslides in two pilot areas selected in the BHCT, if the anthropogenic action on the relief influences the results generated by the prediction model landslides. For this purpose, the SINMAP model in association with geotechnologies (Geographic Information Systems, Geoprocessing, Remote Sensing, Aerophotogrammetry) and the weighted overlapping tool were adopted for the investigation and identification of the areas with probability and risk of landslides, available in ArcGIS software. The results indicate that the changes carried out by the anthropogenic action on the relief are only captured by the model with regard to the topographic order factors, thus giving rise to a false impression of risk reduction and the probability of occurrence of landslides, considering that the geological and geotechnical conditions present in the study area and also contribute directly to the development of landslides, are still present over the years, only now, on the interference of thresholds of anthropogenic origin, which are responsible for the changes not only in relief forms, but also in the properties and positioning of the materials and in the magnitude and location of the geomorphological processes, thus causing, in practice, the intensification of the risk related to the occurrence of landslides.