Avaliação do comércio no G-77 sobre o prisma da cooperação sul-sul

Abstract

This dissertation aims to investigate the impacts of trade integration in the Group of 77 (G-77). Formed by developing countries, the G-77 aims to promote South-South Cooperation (SSC) among its members, including at the commercial level. The analysis of the greater commercial integration in the group is based on the commercial agreement concluded in the General System of Trade Preferences’s (GSTP) third round of negotiations, known as the Third Round of São Paulo, which established tariff cuts of 20% on tariffs applied in agricultural and industrial products. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, in its version 9.0 for 2011, is used. In the impact analyzes, three scenarios are considered: 1) 20% reduction in import tariffs for primary and industrial products, bilaterally, among the G-77 regions; 2) the scenario 1 disregarding intraregional integration, in order to capture only inter-regional integration; 3) scenario 1 disregarding the presence of China. The results indicate that the G-77's interregional trade integration intensifies production and exports in the industrial sectors of the Asian regions, to the detriment of the African, Latin American and Caribbean regions. The presence of China in the tariff reduction agreements reinforces the decline in industrial activity and the increase of primary production in the African, Latin American and Caribbean regions. However, intraregional integration is crucial for the industrial and technological advance of these regions.