Modelagem física e computacional da dinâmica populacional do mosquito Aedes aegypti

Abstract

The global incidence of the Dengue virus and, more recently, the Zika, Chikungunya and Yellow Fever, has increased interest in studying and understanding the population dynamics of the mosquito. These diseases are predominantly disseminated by Aedes aegypti in the tropical and subtropical countries of the world. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries, where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the spread of these diseases. For this reason, models that study the population dynamics in a city are of short importance. This work discusses the numerical modeling of the population dynamics of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in an urban neighborhood of a city. First, we present the preliminary theoretical results of one-dimensional models. Next, we propose a two-dimensional model using partial differential equations. This model allows incorporating external factors (wind and chemical insecticides) and topographic data (streets, building blocks, parks, forests and beaches). The proposed model was tested in examples involving two Brazilian cities (the city center of Juiz de Fora and Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro).