O Programa Bolsa Família e impactos sobre o desenvolvimento humano

Abstract

This thesis is made up of three essays that aim to evaluate the impact of the Bolsa Família Program on human development in health, education and the labor market, respectively. It is important to say that the work aimed at evaluating the impact of the Bolsa Família Program is basically supported by the analysis of PNAD and Demographic Census data, which may have a representative bias. Therefore, for this thesis a longitudinal panel, at the individual level, was constructed from the data of AIBF I and AIBF II. This panel constitutes a milestone for impact assessment studies of the Bolsa Família Program, since it is the first panel that accompanies the same individual over time, and thus can generate more robust results. The model used was of differences in differences. In addition, this thesis represents a further advance in the literature regarding income transfer programs, for making all impact analyzes taking into consideration the sampling design, which is another important characteristic usually ignored. In sampling design, ignoring characteristics of the sampling plan may bias the impact estimation and produce incorrect estimates. The first essay evaluates the impact of the Bolsa Família Program on the education of children aged 6 to 17 years, with a focus on participation, progression, repetition and drop-out. The second essay investigates the impact of Bolsa Família on the health conditions of women and children up to 7 years of age, mainly considering the health of pregnant women, vaccination of children and health expenses. The third essay assesses the impact of the program on the labor market, more specifically on the labor supply of individuals. For the first trial, the preliminary results obtained indicate that the PBF has a positive and significant impact only for school dropout for female children residing in rural areas, from 6 to 14 years of age. For urban children, the PBF had no impact. In the second trial, it is examined whether the PBF generates an increase in the likelihood of children aged 0 to 7 years having a vaccination card and a decrease in monthly health care expenses for all individuals. For the third test, a positive relation between hours worked is expected.