Métodos estatísticos aplicados ao cálculo da ampacidade e risco térmico de linhas aéreas de transmissão

Abstract

This work presents a new proposition for calculation of statistical ampacity and thermal risks associated to ampacity values by using simulation methods that employ intensive computation. The proposed approach uses Bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to calculate and infer information of statistical ampacity drawn from meteorological variables ordinarily used on projects and operation of overhead transmission lines. The objective of using heavy computational statistical methods is to encompass the hard task of deal with analytical approaches of complex, difficult, or even impossible statistical equations. The Bootstrap and Monte Carlo methods apply the relationship among the meteorological variables “wind intensity”, “wind direction”, “solar radiation” and “temperature” in order to calculate indirectly the ampacity and generate a great number of samples that are sufficient to build confidence intervals around the thermal risks. While Bootstrap method uses the original values of the meteorological variables to build the ampacity samples, the Monte Carlo method builds artificial samples derived from the original sample by applying numerical noises with statistical uniform distribution.