Convergência de renda local entre os municípios brasileiros para o período 2000 a 2005

Abstract

Several works discuss the existence of income convergence. The seminal work of Baumol (1986) noted that regions converge in income in an absolute way. Moreover, other studies, such as Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), find no evidence of absolute convergence. Mankiw et al (1992) suggest that convergence would take place conditionally, i.e. each region would converge to its own steady state, given its specific characteristics. From this concept of conditional convergence, it becomes interesting to develop models where each economy has its own parameters. Based on these models, it is possible to provide information about the coefficient β of each region and, thus, discover if that each region is converging or not, and know its convergence speed and half-life. Thus, this study aims to analyze the local convergence of per capita income among the Brazilians cities for the period 2000-2005. Aiming to extend the period under study, also will analyze the local absolute convergence process between the “Áreas Mínimas Comparáveis” (AMC), from 1970 to 2007. For this, will be used the methodology of Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), adapted to local spatial-econometric models that allows the incorporation of elements related to spatial effects, such as dependency and heterogeneity. Finally, this study seeks to verify whether the taxes, municipal expenditures and royalties influence both the process of economic growth and the local income convergence. The results indicate that the GDP per capita affects the growth rate of each municipality and each area (AMC) in a specifically way and, therefore, it can be said that each region has its specific convergence rate and half-life. Moreover, the results also indicate that the impacts of Fundo de Participação Municipal, of the tax and of oil royalties vary between municipalities.