Efeitos do Pronaf e a contribuição das cooperativas sobre indicadores sociais da população rural brasileira no período de 2000 a 2010

Abstract

The Brazilian Program for Strengthening Family Farming (PRONAF) was created in 1996 with the aim of generating income. Since then, this program has been constantly studied but without conclusive results. The target of this dissertation is to analyze the possible effects of PRONAF on social development of the rural population, and to verify the contribution of cooperatives to the results of the program. The data used are from the Demographic Census of 2000 and 2010 from IBGE, the Agricultural Censuses of 1996 and 2006, from the Atlas of Human Development of the Municipalities and from the Brazilian Central Bank. The methodology used for the analysis is the estimation of econometric models for panel data. Overall, the results indicate that the PRONAF had a positive effect on rural per capita income of the municipalities, when it benefits a larger number of producers. But the results suggest that the PRONAF generated negative effects on the permanence of children and adolescents in school. Note also that neither the number of cooperative members nor proportion establishments of cooperative members showed effects on dependent variables. The interaction between the proportion of cooperative members and credit value of PRONAF shows a positive effect on income and negative in the school frequency. However, the interaction between the proportion of members and number of PRONAF contracts shows the reverse effect, with negative effects on income and positive at school attendance. Finally it is suggested that interventions are made order to make most qualified use of resources.