O impacto da imigração haitiana sobre as eleições municipais brasileiras

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the influx of Haitian immigrants on the results of Brazilian municipal elections between 2004 and 2020. This effect will be measured through two channels: whether the proportion of Haitians in Brazilian municipalities affected the proportion of votes obtained by mayoral candidates from left-wing and right-wing parties. To this end, a difference-in-differences approach with fixed effects is used. The main results suggest that municipalities that welcomed the average share of Haitian immigrants in the local population registered a reduction of approximately one percentage point for the country's rightwing parties in the years 2012 and 2020. Furthermore, when carrying out the estimates by region of the country, it is found that the municipality in the southeast that welcomed the average share of Haitian immigrants in the local population registered an increase of 4.5 percentage points in the proportion of votes for right-wing candidates. Meanwhile, the placebo test shows that there was no effect before 2010. Analysis of the possible transmission mechanisms of the treatment reveals that the presence of Haitians impacted the gross domestic product, expenditure and net revenue per capita of Brazilian municipalities.