Pass-through cambial e dinâmica de preços no e-commerce brasileiro

Abstract

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to domestic e-commerce prices in Brazil between 2012 and 2018. Additionally, it analyzes the influence of trade openness, economic activity level, and uncertainty on prices in both the short and long run. The study employs the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method, which is suitable for contexts where variables have different orders of integration. A bivariate ARDL model (including online prices and exchange rates) and an expanded ARDL model (incorporating online prices, exchange rates, trade openness index (IAC), economic activity index (IBC-Br), and economic uncertainty) were considered. The results indicate that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete and occurs gradually for prices. In the bivariate model, the convergence of online prices to equilibrium takes approximately five months, suggesting the possibility of arbitrage. However, the expanded model did not confirm evidence of temporal precedence between the variables. This result does not invalidate the relevance of exchange rates in the price dynamics of e-commerce but suggests that other factors may mitigate this effect. In this case, dynamic pricing strategies by retailers, as well as the use of price comparison technologies and seasonality analysis by consumers, are highlighted.