Relação entre os Gastos Públicos e o Produto Interno Bruto: uma análise regional

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the short- and long-term relationships between public spending and economic growth in the major regions of Brazil, using data from 1995 to 2019 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results indicate a long-term relationship supporting Wagner's Law, where economic growth leads to increased public expenditures, with this relationship being more intense in the Northern, Southeastern, and Southern regions. However, only in the North and Northeast did public spending significantly stimulate economic growth. In the short term, an increase in GDP is associated with growth in expenditures across all regions. In contrast, in the North and Northeast regions, the increase in expenditures has a more pronounced positive impact on GDP, highlighting the need to consider regional particularities in fiscal policies.