Efeito da redução na maioridade penal em minas gerais: uma análise econométrica como análise do potencial da medida

Abstract

Violence is one of the main concerns of the Brazilian population and, despite recent declines, the country still has high homicide rates. Considering that the population aged between 15 and 17 is already considered part of the age cohort responsible for most homicides, reducing the age of criminal majority becomes an alternative to be analyzed as a measure to reduce the high homicide rates in the country. It was then decided to analyze, through a multiple linear regression, whether the relative size of this population in municipalities of Minas Gerais would have a significant relationship in terms of inference and magnitude to observe whether reducing the age of criminal majority would really have the potential to reduce homicide rates in these same municipalities. It was found that the reduction would have the potential to reduce the rates by up to 1.38 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants for every 1% of the population in the age group of 15 to 17 years, allowing us to conclude that the rates would probably be reduced by a considerable magnitude, if the change in legislation can inhibit at least 50% of homicides. For the entire state, this reduction would result in a reduction of approximately 22% in homicides, allowing us to conclude that reducing the age of the criminal majority does have the potential to reduce the homicide rate to a considerable extent. The reduction will only not occur to a considerable extent if the effect of increasing the severity of punishments is very small.