Efeitos econômicos de políticas de expansão em educação e a acumulação de capital humano no Brasil

Abstract

The economic literature qualifies human capital as a set of knowledges and skills which improve the productive capacity of the individuals, unleashing systemic and positive effects in the production ties and the demand of an economy. Those effects can be derived from policies directed to the expansion of the education sector, which economic activity performs a strategic role in the formation of the human capital and in the production of research and development in a country. In Brazil, the public education services represent the main productive activity of P&D in the technologic core of the economy, therefore, the main generative source of knowledge capital in the country. This Thesis contributes to that debate in evaluating the role of the education sector in the country in generating human capital, knowledge capital and the economic effects transmitted through the direct and indirect established channels in the Brazilian productive system. Therefore, this Thesis simulates four scenarios of expansion policies to the educational sector, divided between public and private education in Brazil. The first two scenarios comprehend a simulation of increase of the government spending in education for the purpose of increasing the participation of this kind of spending in relation to the GDP, in which: (i) 10% in 10 years and (ii) 10% in 20 years. The first scenario follows the goal of the National Education Plan (PNE), while the second one is involved in the same goal, but in a wider temporal horizon. Alternatively, simulates more two scenarios in the subsidy granting policy to the private education sector production in the same amount of government spending simulated to the public education observed in the previous scenarios. Those additional simulations allow, then, to compare the generated impacts by the public and private segments of the educational sector in the country about the macroeconomic and sectoral indicators, as well as the impacts in the generation of human capital and knowledge capital. The analysis proceed as from a national Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of recursive dynamics, which already recognizes the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and a theoretical relation to the stock flow between investment in P&D and knowledge capital. To manage the accumulation of human capital, this Thesis developed a module in the theoretical structure of the model in which the years of study in the public and private education and the relative salaries to the educational levels of the workforce define the degree of qualification and the decision to qualify the workers of each economic sector of Brazil. The conclusive results of the four scenarios indicate that while the expansion of the public spending generates positive effects over the economic growth in Brazil, measured by the GDP, and the implementation of subsidies to the private education have contrary effects over the Brazilian economy. On the other hand, all simulated scenarios cause positive effects over the national labor market, in special, over the stock of highly qualified workers, measure that quantify the accumulation of human capital. Ultimately, it is verified that an increase of the government spendings in public education would emphatically impact the investments in P&D and the stocks of knowledge capital in Brazil in the projected period.