Inflação e mercado de trabalho: uma análise da dinâmica dos rendimentos

Abstract

Understanding how macroeconomic policies affect the labor market is crucial for designing policies that minimize the impact on wage inequality and the income trajectory of individuals. The 1990s were marked by structural changes in the country, including constitutional changes at the end of the previous decade, trade liberalization, and the Real Plan. The literature analyzing this period primarily focuses on the impact of trade liberalization and institutional changes. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the impact of inflation on the income trajectories of workers, using as a counterfactual those individuals who entered the labor market after the Real Plan. Specifically, the study seeks to analyze (i) the trajectory of income residuals for individuals in the labor market in the pre- and post-Real Plan periods and (ii) the impact on wage inequality. Using data from RAIS – Relação Anual de Informações Sociais, it is possible to track the sectoral trajectory of workers over time. Employing cohorts of individuals who entered the labor market in 1989 and 1995, methods for analyzing income dynamics were applied, such as the statistical moments of the residuals. The main contribution of this work lies in the analysis of income dynamics, combining the decomposition of wage residuals and the assessment of the direct effects of inflation on wage inequality. The results show that, although wage inequality decreased after economic stabilization, volatility and sensitivity to economic cycles remained high. Workers who entered the labor market in 1989, during the period of hyperinflation, faced greater wage dispersion, while those who entered in 1995, despite having a higher wage concentration around the mean, experienced a higher incidence of extreme values and economic instability over time.