O fenômeno El Niño e os efeitos na produtividade agrícola: implicações econômicas para o agronegócio nas regiões imediatas do Centro-Oeste brasileiro

Abstract

El Niño, a recurring natural phenomenon, is characterized by the anomalous and persistent warming of the Pacific Ocean's waters, extending from the Equator to the coast of South America. This warming, which lasts for at least six months and involves temperatures at least 0.5ºC above average, results in irregular precipitation patterns and elevated temperatures. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for climate change, has intensified both the frequency and severity of events such as El Niño. The intensification of these phenomena has significant consequences for agriculture, a sector vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. Brazil is one of the largest producers of commodities in the world, with the Middle-West region, which includes the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, being a key producer of soybeans, corn, and cotton. However, according to reports from the National Supply Company, climatic instability and the uneven distribution of rainfall associated with El Niño in the Brazilian Middle-West region may delay planting and compromise the productive potential of crops. This study proposes an analysis that captures the systemic sectoral, regional, and spatial effects on the local agribusiness supply chain under a climate change scenario, focusing on changes in agricultural productivity. Additionally, it aims to develop an adapted interregional model to facilitate future policy analyses for the Middle-West region. To achieve this, the AGRO-CO Computable General Equilibrium Model will be applied, which is built from the estimation of two Input-Output matrices for Brazilian agribusiness. The first matrix disaggregates the agribusiness segments within the national matrix, explicitly detailing the soybean, corn, and cotton sectors. The second matrix, using the Inter-regional Input-Output Adjustment System (IIOAS) method, estimates an inter-regional matrix for the 53 Immediate Regions of the Brazilian Middle-West. The AGRO-CO inter-regional general equilibrium model is static, bottom-up, and Johansen-type, based on B-MARIA (Brazilian Multisectoral and Regional/Interregional Analysis Model). The results of the simulation exercise indicate that the Brazilian Middle-West is economically vulnerable to scenarios of agricultural productivity loss, where climatic events impacting the production of soybeans, corn, and cotton may generate significant economic losses for the region. The reduction in agricultural productivity could widen disparities between the Middle-West and the rest of Brazil, as well as accentuate intra-regional differences, particularly in areas more dependent on agriculture, which tend to be more vulnerable to productivity fluctuations. This study seeks to contribute to the literature by conducting an analysis that captures these regional disparities, providing insights for the formulation of public policies aimed at implementing adaptive measures capable of addressing the challenges posed by climate change, such as those induced by the El Niño phenomenon, whose frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the coming years.