Impactos econômicos do desastre de Mariana em diferentes níveis de vizinhança

Abstract

To assess the economic impacts of the Mariana disaster (which occurred on November 5, 2015) on different levels of neighborhood, in the 3, 4, and 5 years after the incident, this research employed a panel-data with spatial-difference-in-difference models (DD) and additional control variables. We have found that direct losses were greater in municipalities closer to the Doce River and that such effects decreased (orderly) with distance (but remaining significant throughout the territories of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo). The most severe effects occurred in agriculture and industry (the latter with a smaller regional range), becoming milder in the service sector. We estimate that the direct losses increased over the 3, 4, and 5 years’ post- disaster, accumulating values (in R$/2022) between R$ 151.9, R$ 297.9, and R$ 498.2 billion, respectively. However, the total effects are less substantial, with figures of 81.7, R$ 146.3, and R$ 256 billion in the same period.