Potenciais determinantes do crescimento econômico em cidades com diferentes portes populacionais

Abstract

This research used a spatial-panel data (2000-2020), with interactive dummies, to evaluate the determinants of economic growth, in Brazilian municipalities with different population sizes. It was estimated that the effectiveness of growth-oriented policies decreases with the increase in population size. In cities with up to 25 thousand inhabitants, having neighbors with a larger relative population would accelerate growth. This situation would be reversed among those with 25-50 thousand inhabitants. Among those with less than 50 thousand inhabitants, improvements in education, public investments and having younger populations proved to be relevant. The sectoral concentration of workers would be advantageous to cities with up to 100 thousand inhabitants. The lack of sanitation would harm small and medium-sized cities. In cities with less than 500 thousand inhabitants, industrial and service concentration would be beneficial, but dependence on public administration would not. Bank credit proved to be important for municipalities with 50-500 thousand inhabitants, while current public spending would stimulate all population groups. In general, the results indicate that there is no “universal golden rule” associated with economic growth. Therefore, there would be no reason to expect that the success of an action, carried out in a large city, could be replicated, with a similar outcome, in a small city (and vice-versa).