Previsão de vendas de automóveis no Brasil: uma análise do efeito da crise pandêmica da COVID-19

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic crisis changed the sales behavior of the automobile market in Brazil. Factors such as mobility restrictions, economic uncertainty and changes in consumption patterns influenced the dynamics of car buying and selling. The general objective of this study is to predict the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis on car sales in Brazil. The empirical strategy used is the Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARIMA) based on monthly data from the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) and the National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution (FENABRAVE), which provide observations on the number of registrations of new and used cars, respectively, between 2012 and 2023. In general, the results of this analysis made it possible to verify the forecast of events for sales of new and used cars based on two scenarios: with and without the exogenous shock of the pandemic. To this end, it was concluded that with the pandemic there is a forecast of a drop in the sales volume of new and used domestic cars in the next 12 months (Oct/2023 to Sep/2024), that is, it corresponds to a pessimistic scenario; and in the non-pandemic scenario, the forecast indicates that sales of new and used cars were higher when compared to the pandemic scenario, that is, an optimistic scenario for 24 months (Mar/2020 to Feb/2022).