Transição energética no Brasil: evolução das emissões de CO2 atreladas ao setor energético nos próximos anos e as mudanças na matriz energética brasileira.

Abstract

The main objective of this monograph is to forecast, with a satisfactory degree of precision, the CO2 emissions of the energy sector in Brazil and the participation of renewables within the brazilian energy mix in 2030. The strategy chosen to achieve this goal was to use a Dynamic Regression Model to make the projections. The first step was to investigate the literature seeking to comprehend not only the past of the brazil energy sector, but also its future perspectives. After understanding the dynamic of the sector, the key variables were chosen and the model estimated. The model projected for 2030, a grow of renewables within the energy mix while the CO2 emissions of the energy sector had a slight drop.