Análise do desempenho das projeções de inflação, Selic e câmbio a partir dos indicadores macroeconômicos presente no Relatório Focus

Abstract

The Focus Market Report, published weekly by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), provides projections for various macroeconomic indicators. Available for free on the BCB website, these projections serve as potential inputs for the economic and financial planning of companies and other institutions. This study aims to assess the accuracy of projections for IPCA, Selic, and exchange rates, using data from the last week of each month in the period from 2015 to 2022, comparing them with the actual indicators at the end of each year. The adopted methodology seeks to replicate the study conducted by the Academic Research Center of the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (FAPEAM), aiming to assess, in a direct and objective manner, the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a decision was made to calculate the simple average of absolute deviations, which was sufficient to identify the presence of errors and subsequently determine their magnitude. In general, errors were observed in the projections of all three indicators, becoming more significant as the interval between the projection date and the official index disclosure increases. Additionally, a trend of overestimation was noted in year-end projections for both IPCA and exchange rates, while Selic projections tended to be underestimated.