Potenciais áreas de invasão de espécies exóticas de decápodes dulcícolas na América do Sul

Abstract

Biological invasions pose significant challenges in the Anthropocene, impacting ecosystem biodiversity and functioning. Ecological Niche Modeling is widely used to map areas at risk of invasions, aiding in the prevention of invasive species expansion and guiding conservation efforts in freshwater ecosystems. The main objectives of this study were to model the ecological niche of five potentially invasive species of freshwater decapods in South America: Dilocarcinus pagei, Macrobrachium amazonicum, Macrobrachium jelskii, Macrobrachium rosenbergii and Procambarus clarkii and evaluate remaining suitable habitats areas for the occurrence of those species in South America. Occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and completed with a literature review combining data. Variables used in the models were obtained from the Worldclim and EarthEvi databases. Ecological Niche Modeling of the potential areas of occurrence was performed using the Biomod2 and SDM package algorithms. Our results indicated a suitable area of up to 11% of South America. Model evaluations yielded favorable TSS and AUC values (>0.7 and >0.8). The suitable areas projected for South America included several hydrographic basins and Protected Areas. The information generated in our study can help identifying susceptible areas to decapods invasion in South America and support local management and decisions.