Impacto do fim do horário de verão no consumo residencial de eletricidade do Brasil

Abstract

The Daylight Saving Time (DST) was an energy policy measure introduced in 1932 by President Getúlio Vargas. It remained in force until 2019, when President Jair Bolsonaro decreed its withdrawal. The decision was based on technical studies of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), which pointed out that energy savings promoted by DST have been decreasing over the years. Using Neyman-Rubin's causal inference framework, this thesis applied two methods to investigate the effect on the residential electricity consumption made by customers of electricity distributors due to DST’s withdrawal: Difference-in-Difference estimator and Synthetic Control. We adjusted the models for two periods: one for the months in which the DST was fully adopted and the other for the months in which the DST was not fully adopted. The results point to a relevant reduction in residential electricity consumption after the change in DST policy considering the treatment distributors above the Tropic of Capricorn and the Southeast region, however, this reduction was found in both periods, indicating that the change in DST policy did not affect residential electricity consumption