Modelo de projeção de faturamento e a importância do planejamento financeiro: um esudo de caso no setor de panificação

Abstract

The main objective of this work is the study and construction of a forecast model for the revenue of Padaria Luzitana. For this, the analysis of time series is used, seeking to generate forecasts that help in the elaboration of a financial planning for the company. To support the work, a study was carried out on financial planning, on the company and the bakery segment in the country. The study consisted of investigating and applying a method of data analysis that can be used as a tool to support decision making regarding the elaboration of the company's financial planning. The historical database of monthly billing covers the period from January 2017 to September 2022. Using the Holt-Winters Model, selected from a competition of methods, it was possible to generate predictions with good explanatory power. Thus, it is concluded that the use of the mathematical-statistical method to generate revenue forecast scenarios can help in the elaboration of a financial planning for the enterprise. It is proposed that analyzes be carried out on other data, such as expenses, so that financial planning is even more assertive.