Ciclos de negócio: o papel da recuperação do setor aéreo de passageiros a partir do período do COVID-19

Abstract

The passenger’s air transport sector in Brazil evolved concomitantly with the growth of the country's GDP throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. The constant growth in the number of passengers transported was benefited by technological advances in aviation, which reduced operating costs and enabled viable connections between isolated cities in the country. In the last 30 years, this market has received political measures aimed at deregulation, increased competition, privatization and infrastructure’s investments. This scene presented a turning point, as well as across the globe, in the year 2020. The pandemic outbreak caused by the coronavirus was responsible for the biggest retraction in the century-old history of this sector. In 2021, after society reacts to the outbreak with sanitary measures and vaccination of populations, the discussion on what the economic recovery will look like is socially relevant. The main objective of this monograph is to evaluate the role of the recovery of the passenger air sector in the Brazilian economy in short-term scenarios. To accommodate this task, this research used a dynamic-resource Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. It was concluded that a faster resumption of the passenger air transport sector has a positive impact on the country's economy. This impact diminishes as the resume speed is slower. This comparison between possibilities of recovery is carried out in this work through the definition of three scenarios. Scenario three, which represents a resumption of the sector until June 2023, is considered the optimistic scenario. Scenario one, on the other hand, represents a more pessimistic view, predicting a recovery only in June 2024. In addition to these two extremes, scenario 2 predicts a middle ground, estimating the sector's recovery until December 2023.