Interação espacial e os efeitos da mudança na produtividade: uma avaliação para o Brasil

Abstract

Technological change has emerged as one of the most relevant topics in regional development policy discussions. Technological progress, which manifests itself in terms of the search for gains in experimentation, is useful for its effects on the economic future and the behavior of agents. In this regard, transmission mechanisms can produce significant redistributive effects, both sectoral and regional. Specifically, economic transactions, regional heterogeneity and the effects of localization are important channels of transmission, which can amplify and/or reduce the impacts of policies and generate convergence or divergence between regions. In the brazilian context, throughout the first decade of the 2000s, several measures and programs were implemented with the objective of obtaining productivity gains and promoting regional development. However, the results were not noticed, as a result of the non-consideration of regional aspects and/or the lack of understanding of the transmission mechanisms. Therefore, the general purpose of this thesis was to investigate the feedback effects, sectoral and regional, due to disturbances in the total factor productivity. Such investigation was carried out through the construction of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which specifies 13 regions and 16 sectors of the brazilian economy. In addition, elements described by the New Economic Geography (NEG) were also incorporated into the model, such as non-constant returns to scale, the possibility of producing differentiated goods and competition in a market in monopolistic competition. Among the main findings of the simulations performed, it is highlighted that the disturbances in the total factor productivity can have different aggregate and regional implications, depending on the regions and sectors affected. These effects arise, in part, through endogenous changes in the pattern of regional trade and the effect of productive reallocation that determines the types of goods that are produced and in which regions. In addition, the regional distance produces positive and negative effects, depending on the type of sectorial interdependence link, which can be a complementary or competitive relationship.