Lei de informática, sistema produtivo e efeitos econômicos: uma análise das diretrizes requisitadas pela OMC no Brasil

Abstract

Investment in research and development (R&D) is a factor in promoting economic growth. However, given the public good aspects of knowledge and market failures, private efforts to promote R&D usually fall below the socially optimal level. Therefore, it is common for governments to promote policies that encourage R&D investments, mainly aimed at the most technology-intensive sectors, where productivity is more sensitive to this type of investment. In Brazil, the Lei de Informática is considered one of the main policies to support corporate R&D. It was instituted in 1991 and granted discounts on the tax on industrialized products (IPI) to companies in the sector of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) that invested a certain amount in R&D. In 2019, after complaints from the European Union and Japan within the scope of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Lei de Informática had to undergo reformulations. As of 2020, the new Lei de Informática began to take effect, reestablishing the full collection of IPI on ICT products and granting a new benefit to the sector in the form of a tax credit. Also, the inspection of the counterpart by the benefited companies, in R&D investments, became more rigid. This dissertation is aimed at contributing to this debate by examining the possible economic effects of these changes in the Lei de Informática. To accomplish this task, the analysis was conducted by a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (EGC) model, which recognizes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and the inventory flow relationship between investment in R&D and knowledge capital. The main findings revealed that the resumption of the collection of IPI would trigger negative effects on the main macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, investments, and exports. However, granting tax credit and increasing investments in R&D would be efficient to reverse losses and generate additional gains. The sectors most benefited would be those directly affected by the policies, but the positive effects would extend to sectors of low technological intensity. Therefore, the changes in the Lei de Informática included the requirements made by the WTO and incorporated mechanisms capable of compensating for the economic problems that they could generate.